Starts for multifamily housing surged recently, but the volume of building permits slowed. According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s monthly report, the annual rate for total residential starts increased 12.2% from July to 1.575 million units. The bulk of that increase in starts was on the multifamily side, which surged 28.6% for the month to an annual rate of 621,000 units. Single-family starts increased a moderate 3.4% to 935,000 units, but remain below the one million level maintained from August 2020 through June 2022.
The rental market of 2022 looks nothing like 2021. With 2022’s 3rd quarter almost in the books, a number of indicators suggest the once blazing-hot rental housing market is cooling off dramatically. RealPage [Market Analytics](https://www.realpage.com/asset-optimization/market-analytics/) will be releasing September data next week, but preliminary results suggest apartment demand has cratered from 2021’s all-time highs due to what appears to be an abrupt halt in household formation.
Here’s one of the most widely misunderstood realities of rental affordability: The renters seeing the largest rent hikes are upper-income households in the most expensive rentals, and despite larger rent increases, they’re least likely to miss a rent payment. On the flip side, rent payments have fallen the most in subsidized affordable housing – where rents have grown the least, since those rents are typically set to a share of income.
New York led the nation for annual job gains once again in August, with Chicago, Dallas and Houston not far behind. However, as in the nation overall, most of those numbers are falling. As the U.S. economy grapples with rising interest rates, high inflation, volatile stocks and weakening consumer sentiment, the labor market has had to contend with increasing torpidity in hiring and retention. According to the latest release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), eight of the top 10 markets for employment gain had smaller annual totals in August than in July, the same number as last month.
Apartment markets in the South region saw revenues increase the most since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. It goes without saying that the pandemic has had a tremendous impact on the nation’s multifamily market. One way to look at performance is to study the changes in revenue per occupied square foot, one of the metrics available in RealPage’s lease transaction data set which is comprised of more than 11 million individual apartment leases.
Apartment rents continue to climb in most parts of the U.S. – although at far more moderate levels compared to peaks seen in 2021 and early 2022. Same-store asking rents for new leases climbed 0.4% between July and August 2022, according to data from RealPage Market Analytics. That pales in comparison to August 2021’s hike of 1.9%, but it’s much more in line with a normal August. Rent growth is seasonal and tends to drop off in late summer. In the 2020s decade prior to COVID-19, the average monthly rent increase in August was 0.2%.
U.S. employers continued to add jobs in August, but at a more reserved pace than earlier in the year. Roughly 315,000 employees were added to payrolls in August 2022, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). That was one of the smallest monthly gains the nation has recorded since April 2021 but was at least ahead of economists’ expectations. Downward revisions to June and July combined showed 107,000 fewer jobs were added in those months than previously reported. Meanwhile, the U.S. unemployment rate inched up to 3.7% in August, up 20 basis points from the July showing.
Apartment renters continue to renew expiring leases far more often than usual, but not quite at the all-time peak levels seen earlier. Retention rates – which are highly seasonal – have been moderating since early 2022, and that pattern continued in August. Of renters with expiring leases, 54.8% signed renewals, and with a typical renewal rent increase of 11%, according to data from RealPage Market Analytics. That’s the second-highest August on record and it’s well above the pre-COVID average for August of 50%, but it’s down considerably from last year, when retention skyrocketed up to 58.1%.
In perhaps a sign of an impending slowdown, an increasing number of markets experienced a decline in their annual job gain totals from the month before. According to the latest release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), eight of the top 10 markets for employment gain had smaller annual totals in July than in June, reversing a trend of increases from last month. The remaining two top 10 markets were essentially unchanged.
Urban cores have largely rebounded from the pandemic-induced performance lows seen over the last couple years. That’s good news for several reasons, especially as many downtown submarkets are set to receive a significant share of their market’s new supply over the next year. Pent-up demand and strong absorption will be met with high supply in several markets across the U.S. In 10 of the nation’s 50 largest apartment markets, annual supply expected in the urban core over the next year will account for over one third of the market’s total, according to data from RealPage Market Analytics.
Peak apartment rent growth is almost certainly now in the rearview mirror, as nearly all measures of rent growth showed deceleration between June and July. But that’s not to say it’s bargain shopping time, as rent growth remains elevated – and likely will throughout the remainder of 2022. Nationally, effective asking rents ticked up 0.8% between June and July. That amounted to only about one-third the monthly increase seen in July 2021, yet still ranked above any other July (aside from 2021) in the last decade. The deceleration was expected, and aligns with RealPage’s forecasts going into 2022.
Demographic tailwinds, economic growth potential and relative affordability have long driven developers to Texas. The past two years were no exception, despite economic strife resulting from a worldwide pandemic. Texas construction totals made up about 19% of all apartment construction in the nation, as of mid-2022. Similarly, Texas property trades made up about 19% of all sales volumes across the country during that time. What’s more significant: Texas makes up less than 9% of the total U.S. population.
Year-over-year comparisons are part of operating apartments, but … this is a year when year-over-year comparisons were inevitably going to be unfavorable. Remember: We’re comparing against 2021, which will likely go down as the strongest year on record by the time of all of us retire. That’s important context when monitoring your leasing traffic. It’s more than likely down compared to 2021. Nationally, guest card volumes in U.S. apartments were down 17% in 2nd quarter 2022 compared to the same time in 2021.
Despite some indicators of economic headwinds, annual gains in employment at the metro level are still climbing. According to the latest release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), eight of the top 10 markets for annual job gains in June added to their annual totals from the month before. All of May’s top 10 markets returned in June, with the first eight in the same order and only two changing places. New York continues to lead the nation in annual gains with 415,500 jobs added to their economy, 12,500 more than May’s annual tally but down almost 200,000 jobs from the strong post-pandemic lockdown recovery figures in 2021.
COVID-19 thrusted rental housing affordability into the spotlight. Headlines warned of a pending eviction tsunami. Policymakers moved to provide backstops – from direct cash stimulus to expanded unemployment pay to eviction moratoria to rental assistance. When it became clear the “tsunami” hadn’t arrived and wasn’t coming, many analysts credited those policy efforts.
By now, the continuous records set in Fall 2022 pre-lease season sound familiar. As of June, pre-lease occupancy in the core 175 universities tracked by RealPage is higher than in any other previous June, and rent growth is at an all-time high. As of June, 86.2% of beds at the RealPage 175 were pre-leased for the Fall 2022 academic year. That marks the highest ever June reading, and stands above several recent July readings, according to data from RealPage Market Analytics. The month-over-month increase (about 670 basis points) showed continued momentum, even as late-season demand runs out of runway
After the uncertainty brought by the global pandemic for the last two years, the student housing industry can now be summed up in two words: impressive performance. Considerable demand has propelled pre-lease rates to record levels across the core 175 universities tracked by RealPage. After the pandemic-stunted performance in Fall 2020, Fall 2021 picked up a considerable amount of late season pre-lease demand in June, July and August.
Numerous indicators suggest that conditions in the red-hot U.S. apartment sector are finally moderating. But is it a true slowdown similar to the magnitude seen in the for-sale housing market? Not yet. Rents are still growing substantially and vacancies remain few. Renters signing a new lease in June paid 19.2% more than previous occupants of the same units. That’s a tick above the previous high set one month earlier, and likely could end up as the peak growth rate – as it marked the first time in 2022 where trade-out rents didn’t jump up significantly from one month to the next.
Inflation is driving up the cost of almost everything, and rent is no exception. Rent growth, like broader inflation, is at 40-year highs. That leads to an important question: Are renters keeping up? Perhaps surprisingly, the answer is – so far – yes. Across the nation, renters in market-rate apartments paid 95.6% of rent due in May 2022. That was up 0.2 percentage points year-over-year. Rent collections have consistently hovered around 95% to 96% over the last two years.
Rising mortgage rates added to already high construction and labor costs are giving more homebuilders pause as the number of homes permitted and started has fallen again for the third consecutive month. Seasonally adjusted annualized building permits for single-family homes fell 5.5% from April to May to 1.048 million homes, while single-family starts dropped 9.2% to 1.051 million, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Both data series are down from last year as well, with permits down 7.9% from last May and starts down 5.3%
