At Home, the Home Goods Surge and Michael’s

Placer ,  September 1, 2020

In this Placer Bytes, we dive into At Home and the surging home goods sector and break down Michaels’s recovery.

The Home Goods Peak

Just as the home improvement sector has seen a powerful surge in visits even as its normal seasonal peak passed, the home goods sector looks to be picking up steam. At Home was up year over year in May, June and July with visits rising 4.8%, 34.1%, and 20.6% year over year respectively.

HomeGoods, Bob’s Discount Furniture and Floor & Decor all returned to year-over-year growth in Q2 as well, while Bed Bath & Beyond was rising back to 2019 levels even with store closures and the conversion of dozens of locations to fulfillment centers. Even Pier 1 was rising, though much of this centered around liquidation sales.

And while the home improvement surge is starting to show signs of slowing down, Home Goods looks to be picking up pace. Visits for the brands analyzed were all rising nearly every week, bringing the brands closer to a full recovery. At Home was up over 35% the weeks beginning August 3rd and 10th, and Bob’s Discount Furniture, HomeGoods, and Floor & Decor were all situated for banner August visit rates.

But, even for the one brand still falling behind 2019 levels, the future may offer a unique opportunity. While Bed Bath & Beyond is still pushing to revamp, it could be well-positioned to benefit from Pier 1’s closing. 42.9% of Pier 1 visitors had also frequented a Bed Bath & Beyond since the start of 2019, the highest number for any player in the space, with HomeGoods coming in second at 36.3%. While continued upgrades will still be needed for Bed Bath & Beyond to fulfill its 2020 winner potential, the closing could potentially provide a vacuum that the brand is uniquely positioned to fill.

Michaels Crafting Its Way to Success

And with so much time on our hands, it was inevitable that crafting saw a boost as well. By July, the brand had seen visits return to growth – up 0.2% year over year – following months of decline since the pandemic kicked off.

Late July seems to be a kickoff point for a longer period of growth. Since the week beginning July 20th, Michaels had seen year-over-year growth each week peaking the week of August 3rd, with a 4.6% year-over-year bump. Should the brand maintain this pace, they could be on the shortlist of retailers that leveraged the pandemic’s recovery to drive value.

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