As it has turned out, July was an inflection point for multifamily rent growth nationally. Apartment demand, exceedingly tepid all year, had its highest monthly total in January. Despite this, and thanks in no small part to remaining excess occupancy built up during 2021, rent growth momentum above the typical level continued into the summer. Monthly average effective rent growth for new leases peaked in June with a 1.3% gain. The rate of growth then declined in each subsequent month before finally entering negative territory in November to the tune of a 0.3% decline.
One of the great housing myths is that the homeownership rate in the U.S. is going down due to higher home prices, higher mortgage rates and increased investor purchases of single-family homes. But the data just does not support the narrative. Homeownership continues to climb, reaching 66% in 2022’s 3rd quarter, which marked the highest level since 2011 (excluding the blip of 2020, when the Census had data collection problems due to the pandemic).
Tight budgets and a smaller emphasis on extending the holiday shopping season early meant all eyes were on Black Friday 2022 for an indication of what lies ahead for holiday retail. And despite the fact that Black Friday 2021 was limited by rising COVID cases and a concerted effort from retailers to shift focus away from the retail holiday, Black Friday 2022 still fell short for most sectors. Still, the retail holiday continues to attract consumers to brick-and-mortar stores, and comparing Black Friday visits to pre-Thanksgiving foot traffic revealed significant visit spikes almost across the board.
To make economic decisions, we need to understand how people and businesses spend their money. To do this, government and academics have historically had to rely on datasets that are small or significantly delayed. However, with the advent of digital economies, we are seeing a new wave of economic research and statistics based on large-scale anonymised transaction datasets. Such data helps us to understand and react to economic movements in real time, without the recurring risk of significant data revisions.
The annualized rate of single-family permits and starts continues to tumble, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s monthly report. Single-family permitting has declined for eight consecutive months, from an annualized rate of 1.2 million homes in February of this year to just 839,000 units in October. Year-over-year, single family permitting is down more than 22%. Additionally, single-family starts have also been declining since February, to an annualized rate of 855,000 units, about 21% below last year.
Digitally native brands (DNBs) – or brands that first launch online – take a unique approach to omnichannel business. More than simply drumming up in-store sales, a DNB’s physical presence connects brand and consumers in a way that benefits both offline and online traffic. These stores are well-known for being experiential in nature, and given this past year’s shift in consumer demand from physical goods to experiences, DNBs have the potential to bridge the gap and capitalize during the holiday retail season.
Ookla® has exciting, fresh data from Q3 2022 for SpaceX’s Starlink, HughesNet, and Viasat in North and South America, as well as new Starlink markets we haven’t yet featured in our ongoing series on satellite internet. With accelerating competition on the horizon for 2023, we’ve been eager to see how Starlink continues to perform, especially as building new fiber connections continues to be costly around the world.
After a bumpy road in travel recovery in the post-pandemic phase, it appears Africa can finally take a sigh of relief. ForwardKeys’ team of analysts have examined the latest air ticketing data in time for the MEADFA event in Bahrain and unearthed several gems. When looking at international arrivals for 2022, there is cause for optimism as Africa is performing comfortably above the global average.
After soaring to new heights in 2020 amid a surge in consumer demand for entertainment and escapism, the mobile gaming space was hit by platform privacy changes and an overall decrease in engagement as real-world experiences became viable once more. Nevertheless, the category still represents an impressive 61% of all consumer spending in apps, a figure that would be even larger if accounting for in-app ad revenue.
Welcome to the December 2022 Apartment List National Rent Report. Our national index fell by 1 percent over the course of November, marking the third straight month-over-month decline, and the largest single month dip in the history of our index, going back to 2017. The timing of the recent cooldown in the rental market is consistent with the typical seasonal trend, but its magnitude has been notably sharper than what we’ve seen in the past, suggesting that the recent swing to falling rents is reflective of a broader shift in market conditions beyond seasonality alone.
STR’s global “bubble chart” update through 19 November 2022 showed the strongest performance of the year thus far. Egypt, Argentina, Israel, Singapore, and the United Arab Emirates were the top five performing countries in revenue per available room (RevPAR) on an actual basis. Europe saw less representation at the top of the leader board, partly due to seasonality with the colder months arriving around the continent, but a continued strong position in relation to pre-pandemic comparables.
Business Insider declared Portugal the new California recently, with many people moving there to work remotely at their jobs elsewhere. But Portugal is not the only country opening their borders for “digital nomads”. Many countries are now offering digital nomad visas or investing in initiatives that make them more attractive to international migration.
The past few years have been good to the discount and dollar sector. The segment saw heightened visits and store fleet growth in a period marked by a global pandemic and economic uncertainty. Now, we dive into the performance of four major discount chains – Dollar Tree, Dollar General, Family Dollar (owned by Dollar Tree), and Five Below – to see how the upcoming holiday season might affect visits.
An analysis by ForwardKeys, a knowledge partner of City Destinations Alliance (CityDNA), reveals at the Annual CEO Meeting of Capital and Major Cities by CityDNA, that the latest air ticketing data show European cities on track to recovery in Q4. While international travel recovery worldwide in Q4 tracks 30% below 2019 levels, the European continent overperforms the world average at -24%. This also represents an acceleration compared with the -30% registered in Europe in Q3.
This week global scheduled airline capacity – that is, the number of seats being flown by airlines around the world – remains only 85% of where it was in the same week in 2019. Not only has there been no growth for three years, but the industry is still a significant way behind where it was. And this is an industry that had become accustomed to average annual capacity growth of 3.5% over more than 20 years.
Over the past few years, Ulta has established itself as one of the nation’s leading retailers. Despite the significant challenges facing discretionary retailers in the wake of COVID and ongoing inflation, the beauty chain continues to experience remarkable growth, with second-quarter net sales increasing 16.8% percent compared to last year. In May, the company launched its own retail media network – utilizing its diverse and expanding customer base to offer partners targeted advertising opportunities, both on and off its website.
Consumer spend growth measured by the Vela credit and debit card data in Earnest Analytics Spend Index (EASI) decelerated to 5% YoY in the first 16 days of the holiday shopping season (starting Nov. 1). This was notably slower than early holiday 2020 and 2021 shopping season levels at 11% YoY and 19% YoY, respectively, and slightly lower than 2019’s 7% YoY growth rate.
With holiday shopping in full swing, several retailers—including department stores like Kohl’s and big-box stores like Target—are reportedly bracing for deep discounts in response to excess inventory and value-conscious consumers. At the same time, off-price retailers are reportedly benefitting from the inventory challenges faced by their suppliers, and have been able to negotiate lower buying prices and further diversify the brands in their merchandise.
The holiday season is an important time not just for retailers but for coffee chains as well, as these brands get a boost in foot traffic from thirsty consumers going about their holiday shopping. As Black Friday draws nearer – and with the official kickoff of holiday shopping – we dove into the foot traffic data for department stores and Starbucks to take a closer look at the status of holiday retail thus far.
Low-income consumers are moving their wallets to dollar stores according to Earnest Analytics’ credit and debit card data in the face of high inflation. Spending by households making under $55k per year at national dollar store chains like Big Lots (BIG), Dollar General (DG), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Five Below (FIVE), and Olli’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI) materially outgrew spending across other major categories since April. Hobbies & Toys, Health & Beauty, Supermarkets, Home Furnishings, Household Goods, and Home Improvement.
