Travel between the UK and the Republic of Ireland has shown resilience over the course of the last year with levels 50pts greater than between the UK and all other countries, as high-frequency mobility data suggests that Brexit has had little impact on the volume of traffic since January 1st 2021. The Index reveals that travel to and from Ireland saw a sharp drop at the start of the pandemic, however, it quickly recovered to 80% of pre-pandemic levels and has since remained 50pts greater than that of journeys between the UK and the rest of the world.
One year ago, the City of Miami Beach imposed a curfew to stop the spread of the Coronavirus. Fast forward to today, and City officials again imposed lockdowns at night – with Miami Beach City Manager Raul Aguila declaring a State of Emergency over building crowds in Miami Beach during Spring Break 2021. Visits increased to the Entertainment District over last year, yet largely moved in-tandem with last year’s trend. Yet by mid-March, visits to the Entertainment continued to surge far above last year’s count, with momentum, until a significant drop on March 21, a day after the Curfew order.
STR’s latest 51-chart demand map through 13 March 2021 shows that most states are moving closer to their levels from the same time last year. Unfortunately, those demand levels from comparable periods in 2020 were lowered substantially by the earliest pandemic lockdowns. A clear majority of states have made solid progress in shrinking the tremendous demand deficits that developed during the worst times of the pandemic. However, current bookings shortfalls from pre-pandemic times remain significant, particularly in a handful of states dominated by the largest urban markets.
Let’s begin today’s analysis and revelation with an encouraging quote from John F Kennedy: “When written in Chinese, the word crisis is composed of two characters — one represents danger, and the other represents opportunity.” Now that the tone has been set, we can reveal how some destinations are attracting longer stays as the prolonged pandemic discourages people from returning home to work from their gloomy homes. Why would you when sparkling Belize and the Canary Islands are on offer?
One year after the initial lockdowns and stay at home orders across the groble, Americans are now driving a lot more, as measured by our miles driven index. More specifically, the last three weeks Advan’s miles driven index captured an increase in traffic as high as 40% nationwide compared to the pre-pandemic levels in February 2020. As the vaccines are being rolled out people’s confidence is picking up and in combination with certain COVID-related restrictions being lifted and the advent of Spring and Spring breaks, everyone seems to be making up for lost travel.
Another one million additional seats added back week-on-week, carry on at this rate and capacity will be back to pre-pandemic levels by this time next year; if only it was that simple. Whilst the recent pattern of capacity growth is positive, new spikes of COVID in Eastern Europe and particularly Lower South America continue to cause concern whilst Japan’s airlines have announced capacity cuts of over 30% for April across their domestic networks.
Hotels in the Middle East have shown resilience throughout the pandemic, with performance at higher levels compared to other parts of the world. Those higher levels have been highlighted by the region’s key markets. Dubai was virtually the only tourist destination open for international leisure travel, while Abu Dhabi hosted the International Defense Exhibition (IDEX) in person in late February 2021 with zero quarantine requirements for international arrivals.
Optimism continues to build in the recovery with weekly capacity increasing once again week-on-week with some 57.9 million seats or nearly 58 million planned over the next seven days as the Summer Season is now only two weeks away. It may only be a 1.4% increase on last week’s capacity and we remain at 54% of pre COVID capacity levels but a steady climb in the right direction appears underway. In March some 19,502 unique airport pairs will be operated by the 407,500 scheduled flights delivering an average frequency of 25 flights per route; it’s amazing what trivia numbers can produce!
Relying on quantitively calculated, real-time air ticketing data, this week we reveal Russia as a travel market worth investing in. In 2020, there was a rise in demand for domestic travel and some markets even recovered to 2019 levels.
The year 2020 was a colossal year for many nations getting to grips with the virus that has closed international travel off for many, whilst airports sit empty and planes grounded on lonely tarmacs. However, throw in Brexit, the AstraZeneca vaccine, lockdowns, and travel restrictions, and the United Kingdom has been on a never-ending see-saw of ups and downs.
It was only ever likely to be for a week, but China has snatched back the title of the world’s largest aviation market from the United States with a stellar 32% increase in capacity week on week and a more modest 4% growth in the last two weeks. Total weekly capacity is now back at 52.6 million although that only takes us to just above half the capacity levels reported before Covid-19.
Consumer Edge’s recently launched UK dataset has already proven to be very predictive for several company earnings reports. One such company is easyJet, where a strong correlation provides confidence in Consumer Edge airline data overall. In today’s Insight Flash, we take a deep dive into UK travel trends, digging into how low-cost players like easyJet are holding up.
Wow, where did that come from! A near 27% reduction in capacity and the loss of over 3.2 million domestic seats in one week has handed the United States the title as the world’s largest aviation market something no one probably expected. It may be a short-lived gift from China as part of their New Year festivities but nevertheless a dramatic turnaround in just seven days.
The impact of the pandemic on the travel industry, and aviation in particular, is laid bare in mobility data showing how outbound trips from the UK reduced by 75% throughout most of last year. High frequency data from Huq Industries shows how total trips abroad fell significantly during the first lockdown and have never recovered – currently languishing at 25 percent of 2019 levels.
With Australia Day recently celebrated on January 26, the travel analytics experts at ForwardKeys decided to zoom into the latest air ticket data to see what is on the horizon for the sunny Land Down Under and the outlook reveals unique city opportunities. When examining the air tickets issued since the commencement of the Coronavirus in April 2020, domestic travel across Australia’s four main cities, revealed new destination gems in the mineral-rich parts of Australia: Queensland and Western Australia.
According to the latest flight data by the experts at ForwardKeys, the domestic travel outlook for the Chinese New Year has been hurt by the rise in new cases in China. To prevent the spread of the virus, the vast majority of provinces have been strongly advised by the authorities to not travel outside their residential provinces for the holiday. For those who intend to travel back to their hometowns, it will be required to submit a negative COVID-19 test 7 days before the departure date.
Often referred to as the world’s largest mass migration, Chunyun, or the Spring Festival, can see as many as 3 billion trips being made in a more normal year. Coinciding with student breaks, and benefitting from a week of public holidays, vast numbers of students are joined by migrant workers and others returning home to spend time with their family. In more recent years, the Spring Festival is also a time when many have chosen to go on vacation, or return from overseas, causing a spike in both domestic and international air travel.
Another dire week for global aviation with more lockdowns, sudden suspensions of services and the threat of having to stay in a quarantine hotel at Heathrow looming for anyone brave enough to want to enter the United Kingdom. Can things get any worse; probably but let’s hope not and try to stay positive.
Last year was a dismal year for travel. But as vaccines and other safety measures roll out, change is already happening. Whether it’s cycling trips to tour sites important to the Civil Rights movement or an overdue visit to see grandparents, travel will be a meaningful part of 2021. As the industry recovers, advertisers can provide answers to the question at the top of many consumers’ minds: where to next?
Few industries have been impacted more severely by the COVID-19 pandemic than Travel & Leisure. According to Credit Benchmark, which captures the credit risk views of over 40 of the world’s leading financial institutions, 44% of companies in the global Travel & Leisure sector fell from investment grade to high yield between March and November of 2020. That means the consensus credit risk scores for these so-called ‘fallen angels’ fell below the bbb- threshold at some point during the pandemic.
