In October 2020, 6.1% of home mortgages were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure), a small decrease from September 2020, but a 2.4-percentage point increase from October 2019, according to the latest CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights Report.
Applications by prospective tenants for a rental home generally pick-up each spring. The President’s declaration of a national emergency on March 13 triggered Shelter-In-Place restrictions and disrupted the seasonal rise. By the end of March applications for rental homes were down 42% from the same period one year earlier.
National home prices increased 8.2% year over year in November 2020, according to the latest CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI®) Report. The November 2020 HPI gain was up from the November 2019 gain of 3.7% and was the highest year-over-year gain since March 2014. Home sales for the year are expected to register above 2019 levels. Meanwhile, the availability of for-sale homes has dwindled as demand increased and coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreaks continued across the country, which delayed some sellers from putting their homes on the market.
As the last housing market indicator in 2020, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index finishes the year on a high note during this trying year. Home purchase activity remained consistently elevated through the end of the year, with some expected seasonal slowdown turning up as winter months approached. Still, the slowdown appears to be smaller than in a typical year.
After the pandemic took hold in the U.S. in early 2020, stay-at-home orders and uncertainty in the economy delayed listings from going live on the market. The typical spring home buying season was pushed into summer in 2020 and continued into fall. Meanwhile, low interest rates motivated home buyers.
Six months after the CARES Act was signed into law on March 27, 2020, mortgage forbearances remain elevated as millions of Americans sought payment relief after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Beginning in April, forborne loans falling behind payment have become a significant presence in recorded mortgage delinquencies (Figure 1), representing over two-thirds of all delinquent loans
U.S. single-family rent growth strengthened in October, increasing 3.1% year over year, showing solid improvement from the low of 1.4% reported for June 2020, and up from the 2.9% rate recorded for October 2019, according to the CoreLogic Single-Family Rent Index (SFRI)
Mortgage rates have hit record lows in 2020, generating a refinance boom as borrowers seek to save on their mortgage payments. CoreLogic has been monitoring the share of outstanding mortgage debt with interest rates above the current market rates and found that a large share of current mortgage borrowers could benefit from a refinance.
In September 2020, 6.3% of home mortgages were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure), a small decrease from August 2020, but a 2.5-percentage point increase from September 2019, according to the latest CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights Report.
2020 was a truly unprecedented year. With it behind us, let’s look ahead at three housing market trends that are likely during the next three years. First, exceptionally low mortgage rates are likely to be around for an extended period. We expect 30-year fixed-rate loans to remain below 3% during early 2021 and average about 3.2% during the next three years.
National home prices increased 7.3% year over year in October 2020, according to the latest CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI®) Report. The October 2020 HPI gain was up from the October 2019 gain of 3.5% and was the highest year-over-year gain since April 2014. The pandemic has shifted home buyer interest toward detached rather than attached homes as detached homes have more living area and tend to be located in less densely populated neighborhoods.
While 2020 has left little to be surprised about, the home purchase market has surprised for the better. Strong home buying activity continued to soar into autumn, with September reaching the strongest annual growth since pre-Great Recession.
Following the temporary housing market freeze during April’s nation-wide shutdowns, national sales of homes during the summer outpaced last year’s levels with September sales averaging 10% higher compared to last September. And according to the latest home buying contracts signed, also known as Pending Sales, the positive trend is expected to continue in the autumn.
U.S. single-family rent growth strengthened in September, increasing 2.5% year over year, showing solid improvement from the low of 1.4% reported for June 2020, but a slowdown from the 3% rate recorded for September 2019, according to the CoreLogic Single-Family Rent Index (SFRI).
The CoreLogic Home Price index has reported quickening appreciation in home values since May, and in September annual price growth was more than two percentage points faster than one year earlier. The acceleration in price growth reflected a demand and supply imbalance.
In August 2020, 6.6% of home mortgages were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure)\[1\], unchanged from July 2020, but a 2.9-percentage point increase from August 2019, according to the latest CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights Report.
Recent loan performance data from CoreLogic shows that the nation’s overall mortgage delinquency rate – the proportion of mortgage loans falling 30 or more days behind scheduled payment, including loans in foreclosure – have risen quickly during the COVID-19 pandemic, as millions of Americans lost their jobs and income due to the economic shutdown.
Unlike the Great Recession, the speedy intervention provided by the CARES Act ensured mortgage forbearance options for homeowners who were financially harmed by the pandemic recession and had a federally backed loan. And while forbearance options will help some homeowners keep their homes, the path of employment rebound – which is still unclear - will be a critical determinant for many delinquency outcomes.
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a big effect on the mortgage market. Along with a drop in mortgage rates to a record low, the jumbo-conforming mortgage rate spread has also been affected. Before 2013 mortgage rates for jumbo loans were higher than for conforming loans. However, in 2013 the rate-difference fell, and jumbo rates have averaged 5 basis points lower than conforming during 2013-2019.
National home prices increased 6.7% year over year in September 2020, according to the latest CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI®) Report. The September 2020 HPI gain was up from the September 2019 gain of 3.5% and was the highest year-over-year gain since May 2014.