Through August 2021 with Forecasts from August 2022
Introduction
The CoreLogic Home Price Insights report features an interactive view of our Home Price Index product with analysis through August 2021 with forecasts from August 2022.
CoreLogic HPI™ is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ (with a 30-year forecast horizon), project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—Single-Family Combined (both Attached and Detached) and Single-Family Combined excluding distressed sales.
The report is published monthly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes home price indices (including distressed sale); home price forecast and market condition indicators. The data incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends.
HPI National Change
August 2021 National Home Prices
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 18.1% in August 2021 compared with August 2020, marking the largest annual gain in home prices in the 45-year history of the CoreLogic Home Price Index. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 1.3% in August 2021 compared with July 2021 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).
Forecast Prices Nationally
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase on a month-over-month basis by 0.3% from August 2021 to September 2021, and on a year-over-year basis by 2.2% from August 2021 to August 2022.
“Home prices continue to escalate at a torrid pace as a broad spectrum of buyers drive demand for a limited supply of homes. We expect to see the trend of strong price gains continue indefinitely with large amounts of capital chasing too few assets.”
-Frank Martell
President and CEO of CoreLogic
HPI & Case-Shiller Trends
This graph shows a comparison of the national year-over-year percent change for the CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index from 2000 to present month with forecasts one year into the future. We note that both the CoreLogic HPI Single Family Combined tier and the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index are posting positive, but moderating year-over-year percent changes, and forecasting gains for the next year.
Economic Impact on Home Prices
Home prices rose to a fever pitch this summer, with annual price gains reaching another all-time high in August at 18.1%. Ongoing affordability challenges within the supply-constricted market have also been exacerbated by an influx in homebuying activity from investors. As the home purchase market continues to boom and buoy the post-pandemic economy, these market factors are unevenly affecting access for some buyers. This is reflected in a recent CoreLogic consumer survey, where 59% of consumers looking to purchase a home reported combined household earnings of at least six figures, compared to the 10% of consumers looking to purchase earning less than $50,000.
“Single-family detached homes continue to be in high demand. These properties offer more living space and distance from neighboring homes than that of attached properties. On average, detached homes have 28% more inside space compared to single-family attached properties and about twice as much space as apartments in multifamily structures.”
– Dr. Frank Nothaft
Chief Economist for CoreLogic
HPI National and State Maps – August 2021
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
Nationally, home prices increased 18.1% year over year in August. No states posted an annual decline in home prices. The states with the highest increases year-over-year were Idaho (32.2%) and Arizona (29.5%).
HPI Top 10 Metros Change
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
These large cities continue to experience price increases in August, with Phoenix leading the way at 30.9% year over year.
Markets to Watch: Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline
While home price changes on the local level vary, August gains across all of the top 10 metros surpassed their 2020 levels. However, metro areas where affordability constraints are prevalent continue to persist as prices rise. For instance, in August, home prices in San Diego increased 23.2% year over year and are forecasted to increase an additional 7% over the next 12 months.
Conversely, The HPI Forecast also reveals the continued disparity in home price growth across metros. In markets like Houston, which was hit hard by the collapse of the oil industry and the recent hurricane season, home prices are expected to decline 1.3% by August 2022.
The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts that metros such Springfield, Massachusett; Chico, California; and Merced, California are at high risk (50-70% probability) of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months. Norwich-New London, Connecticut and Worcester, Massachusetts are also at a moderate risk (25-50%) of a decline.
Summary
CoreLogic HPI features deep, broad coverage, including non-disclosure state data. The index is built from industry-leading real-estate public record, servicing, and securities databases—including more than 40 years of repeat-sales transaction data—and all undergo strict pre-boarding assessment and normalization processes.
CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts both provide multi-tier market evaluations based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales, helping clients hone in on price movements in specific market segments.
Updated monthly, the index is the fastest home-price valuation information in the industry—complete home-price index datasets five weeks after month’s end. The Index is completely refreshed each month—all pricing history from 1976 to the current month—to provide the most up-to-date, accurate indication of home-price movements available.
To learn more about the data behind this article and what CoreLogic has to offer, visit https://www.corelogic.com/.
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