As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to unfold, we’re sharing how the virus is impacting foot traffic to a variety of places across the United States (past editions here). With the world starting to open back up, we’re seeing pent-up demand to engage in the physical world. Where will people go first? One area where we’re seeing a significant uptick in foot traffic is to casual dining restaurants, now that dine-in service is being reintroduced in many states. We decided to dig into our data to better understand which casual dining restaurants are on the fastest road to recovery.
This week, we’re launching The Casual Dining Recovery Ranking, an assessment of the top CDR chains in the United States ranked according to who we expect to recover first post-pandemic.
In order to determine which chains may recover first, we’ve analyzed foot traffic to casual dining restaurants across the U.S., using two key dimensions:
Foursquare’s Recovery Ranking distills both dimensions into a single metric that can be compared across chains nationwide. For this analysis, Foursquare examined foot traffic to the casual dining chains in National Restaurant News’ Top 500 Chains. To further isolate the COVID-related impact and recovery trends behind this ranking, foot traffic was seasonally adjusted according to natural visit patterns observed last year.
It likely comes as no surprise that some of the country’s leading national chains like Applebee’s and Chili’s Grill & Bar top the list of casual dining restaurants with the highest rate of recovery. These restaurants offer a pleasant atmosphere, nationwide presence, and dependable food quality and service. However, our data also shows smaller regional chains and niche players making inroads.
While upticks in foot traffic to casual dining restaurants may stem from dine-in service being reintroduced in certain states, many of these chains have offered curbside pickup throughout the pandemic – some with more success than others. Thus, our analysis includes both dine-in and takeout visits.
Here’s this week’s top 15 CDR chains we expect to recover most quickly, based on foot traffic data since the pandemic began through May 22:
In the chart above, we classified each chains’ relative decline and rate of recovery as ‘high’ ‘medium’ or ‘low,’ based on deciles. However, it should be noted that there are still differences between two brands with the same classification – hence why Chili’s Grill & Bar can come out ahead of Red Lobster.
The casual dining chains that will recover first depends on both the relative decline at the height of the pandemic and the rate of recovery. A restaurant that was hit harder by the pandemic may actually recover sooner than a chain that was less impacted, given a faster rate of recovery. A restaurant with smaller declines in foot traffic during the height of COVID-19 may actually be slower to reach pre-pandemic levels, given a slower rate of recovery.
Foursquare’s Recovery Ranking distills these complexities into a single ranking for brands across the dining industry, informing:
To learn more about the data behind this article and what Foursquare has to offer, visit https://foursquare.com/.
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Data is changing the speed of business. Investors, Corporations, and Governments are buying new, differentiated data to gain visibility make better decisions. Don't fall behind. Let us help.