In recent weeks, the term “K-shaped recovery” has been popping up with increased frequency; used by political figures, economists and media personalities alike. Investopedia, in short, defines a K-shaped recovery as when “different parts of the economy recover at different rates, times, or magnitudes.”
Typically this time of year finds our analysts at LinkUp pouring over our jobs data to get a preview of holiday labor demand. Generally, we’d be looking at when seasonal hiring begins, who is doing the most hiring, and what all this might mean for holiday retail. But if we’ve learned anything over the past months, it’s that 2020 is anything but typical.
While U.S. job openings on company websites globally rose 2% in September, continuing the steady recovery in U.S. labor demand that began in May, the rate of increase was the slowest in the past 4 months.
To say that 2020 has been a year like no other would be a staggering understatement. Our health, well being and livelihoods have been stress-tested in ways we couldn’t have imagined just one year ago. In order to make sense of the chaos, and search for some sign of light at the end of the tunnel, we took a deeper look at our jobs data to see what it can tell us about the labor market and economy amid the global pandemic.
Back in July, LinkUp wrote an article testing the hypothesis that government stimulus was preventing workers from returning to work. The prevailing narrative was that some workers were receiving more compensation through the CARES Act than they would by returning to many low-paying jobs, so those workers were opting out and low-paying jobs were going unfilled. In our article, we concluded that LinkUp’s data did not support this claim at that time.
As we mark half a year of grappling with COVID, one industry that has weathered major turmoil is Food Service. Looking at the data to determine the shape of the industry today, we see both positive and negative signs. Noted in our recent monthly recap, Accommodation and Food Services was the industry that saw the biggest decline in August, down -9.29% for the month. (Utilities was the only other industry down, while the other 87% of industries saw improvement.)
As Labor Day closed the books on what is arguably the strangest summer in modern history, we decided to take a peek in the rearview mirror and recap what happened over the last 90 days (or was it 90 years? What is time anyway?!?)
Labor demand continued to rise in August, with steady gains in total, new and removed job openings across the U.S. that continued the steady gains seen in June and July. The LinkUp 10,000, a metric that measures the job openings for the 10,000 global employers with the most job openings in the U.S. for the month, rose 3.6% in August.
The U.S. job market is making a recovery according to data from LinkUp. Through the middle of August, over one million new positions were published which is in line with numbers from a year ago. The rebound in job postings in July and August is especially encouraging considering the sharp decline in hiring as a result of the COVID-19 economic shutdown.
There are few industries that have experienced more change in our pandemic world than healthcare. Since COVID concerns came to light, there has been no shortage of news stories about everything from scandals at the nation’s largest hospitals to AI’s role in reinventing the industry.
As the coronavirus continues to affect nearly every city in the U.S., many are struggling to envision what the road to recovery may look like. Moody’s Analytics sought to provide clarity for that vision in a recent report. They examined the top 100 metro areas in the U.S. to identify the 10 cities best positioned to recover from the coronavirus, as well as the 10 worst. We then took a look at the cities Moody’s highlighted to understand if our jobs data could add additional insights on prospects for economic recovery.
There is a strong narrative present in today’s media that the $600 a week provided by the CARES Act is creating a disincentive for Americans to return to work. This narrative can be seen in Washington as politicians argue over the pros and cons of extending some benefits of the CARES Act. In this post we will examine whether LinkUp’s job listing dataset can provide support to this narrative.
As we prepare for a large swath of companies to report earnings in the next few weeks, LinkUp decided to take a look at jobs data to see if we could find an indication of what to expect. To start, we selected a handful of stocks whose 10 day average of active jobs have shown movement either up or down over the past 30 days.
Once regarded as one of the most highly valued unicorn companies, the last year has been a rough ride for co-working giant WeWork. In an interesting turn of events, Executive Chairman Marcelo Claure revealed in a recent interview that the long beleaguered company is on a faster track to profitability than once thought. Claure, the former Sprint CEO who joined WeWork’s parent company SoftBank in 2018, told the Financial Times that WeWork expects to be cash-flow positive in 2021, a first stop on the road to turning actual profits.
For the week ending July 5th, job openings on company websites dropped 19%, with declines in all but 2 states. It’s important to note that it was a holiday week and it’s not surprising that job openings would decline to some extent with people taking time off for the 4th. On the other hand, the horrific rise in COVID-19 cases in the U.S. in the past month or so, driven entirely by states that opened up way too fast without even the most basic, rational precautions like wearing masks, has resulted in states and businesses now closing things down.
What has returned to ‘normal’ in the U.S labor market is the fact that the trailing 30-day average of daily new and removed job listings on company websites throughout the country are now back in tandem with one another. And while the daily number of active job openings isn’t rising, new and removed jobs have risen steadily since May which provides some evidence that some portion of businesses have started or intend to start hiring again.
There has been a lot of recent news about large banks; the possibility of cutting dividends and generally not having the best looking balance sheets. As we near the end of June and the Federal Reserve’s annual stress tests on the biggest banks in the U.S. wrap up, investors are concerned about whether regulators will require dividend cuts. We decided to take a deeper look at this, hoping that recent job listings could shed some light on the direction large banks are heading.
Who needs cardio? Watching the trajectory of fitness companies since the advent of coronavirus is enough to get anyone’s heart rate up, no treadmill required. Unsurprisingly, the pandemic has been tough for the fitness business to navigate. On Monday, California-based 24 Hour Fitness filed for bankruptcy and announced plans to close 135 of its 445 locations.
It’s a powerful indication of the insanity plaguing the headlines these days that a global pandemic that has, so far, claimed over 100,000 lives in the U.S., put at least 40 million people out of work, driven unemployment to depression-era levels, decimated tens of thousands of businesses, and fundamentally transformed the world we live in could rightly drop from the front-pages.
As we wrote last week, we’ve seen a relatively sharp increase in new job openings across most of the country since the end of April. Through May 17th, new job listings on company and employer websites throughout the country had risen 28% since the week ending April 26th with the largest increases in South Carolina, Louisiana, Florida, Texas, and Rhode Island.