Through December 2021 with Forecasts through December 2022
Introduction
The CoreLogic Home Price Insights report features an interactive view of our Home Price Index product with analysis through December 2021 and forecasts through December 2022.
CoreLogic HPI™ is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ (with a 30-year forecast horizon), project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—Single-Family Combined (both Attached and Detached) and Single-Family Combined excluding distressed sales.
The report is published monthly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes home price indices (including distressed sale); home price forecast and market condition indicators. The data incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends.
HPI National Change
December 2021 National Home Prices
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 18.5% in December 2021 compared with December 2020. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 1.3% in December 2021 compared with November 2021 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).
Forecast Prices Nationally
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will remain flat on a month-over-month basis from December 2021 to January 2022, and increase on a year-over-year basis by 3.5% from December 2021 to December 2022.
HPI & Case-Shiller Trends
This graph shows a comparison of the national year-over-year percent change for the CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index from 2000 to present month with forecasts one year into the future. We note that both the CoreLogic HPI Single Family Combined tier and the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index are posting positive, but moderating year-over-year percent changes, and forecasting gains for the next year.
Economic Impact on Home Prices
Consumer desire for homeownership against persistently low supply of for-sale homes created one of the hottest housing markets in decades in 2021 — and spurred record-breaking home price growth. Price appreciation averaged 15% for the full year of 2021, up from the 2020 full year average of 6%. Home price growth in 2021 started off at 10% in the first quarter, steadily increasing and ending the year with an increase of 18% for the fourth quarter.
While there have been questions surrounding whether we are currently in a housing bubble, the CoreLogic Market Risk Indicators suggest a small probability of a nationwide price decline, and points to the larger likelihood that a fall in price will be limited to specific, at-risk markets (Table 2). Still, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast shows the national 12-month growth steadily slowing over 2022. During the early months of the year, it’s projected to remain above 10% while decelerating each month to a 12-month rise of 3.5% by December 2022. Comparing the average projected National HPI for 2022 with the previous year, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast shows the annual average up 9.6% in 2022.
“Much of what we’ve seen in the run-up of home prices over the last year has been the result of a perfect storm of supply and demand pressures. As we move further into 2022, economic factors – such as new home building and a rise in mortgage rates – are in motion to help relieve some of this pressure and steadily temper the rapid home price acceleration seen in 2021.”
– Dr. Frank Nothaft
Chief Economist for CoreLogic
HPI National and State Maps – December 2021
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
Nationally, home prices increased 18.5% year over year in December. No states posted an annual decline in home prices. The states with the highest increases year-over-year were Arizona (28.4%), Florida (27.1%), and Utah (25.2%).
HPI Top 10 Metros Change
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
These large cities continue to experience price increases in December, with Phoenix leading the way at 30.2% year over year.
Markets to Watch: Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline
The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts that metros such Prescott, Arizona; Merced, California; Lake Havasu-Kingman, Arizona; and Worcester, Massachusetts, are at a very high risk (+70% probability) of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months. Kalamazoo-Portage, Michigan, is also at a high risk (50-70%) of a decline.
To learn more about the data behind this article and what CoreLogic has to offer, visit https://www.corelogic.com/.
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Data is changing the speed of business. Investors, Corporations, and Governments are buying new, differentiated data to gain visibility make better decisions. Don't fall behind. Let us help.
