Delinquency Rate Nears Pre-Pandemic Rate in September

CoreLogic ,  December 15, 2021

Loan Performance Insights Report Highlights: September 2021

• The nation’s overall delinquency rate was 3.9% in September.
• The serious delinquency rate fell to its lowest level since May 2020.

In September 2021, 3.9% of home mortgages were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure)[1], which was a 2.4-percentage point decrease from September 2020 according to the latest CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights Report. Comparatively, the overall delinquency rate in September 2019 was 3.8%. This is the closest the overall delinquency has been to the pre-pandemic rate since its onset.

Overall Delinquency Rates

The share of mortgages that were 30 to 59 days past due — considered early-stage delinquencies — was 1.1% in September 2021, down from 1.5% in September 2020. The share of mortgages 60 to 89 days past due was 0.3% in September 2021, down from 0.7% in September 2020.

The serious delinquency rate — defined as 90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure — was 2.4% in September, down from 4.2% in September 2020. Forbearance programs have kept delinquencies from progressing to foreclosure and therefore the foreclosure inventory rate — the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process — was at a 22-and-a-half year low of 0.2% in September 2021. However, the share of borrowers behind on payments by six months or more was 1.8% in September — making up nearly half of the overall delinquency rate.

Figure 1: Current- to 30-Day Transition Rate Shows Sharp Decrease From Year Ago

Stage of Delinquency: Rate of Transition

In addition to delinquency rates, CoreLogic tracks the rate at which mortgages transition from one stage of delinquency to the next, such as going from current to 30 days past due (Figure 1).

The share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30 days past due was 0.6% in September 2021 — a decrease from 0.8% in September 2020. Low transition rates indicate that while the rate of mortgages in any stage of delinquency remained elevated, fewer borrowers slipped into delinquency than at the peak of delinquency rates in 2020.

Figure 2: States With the Highest and Lowest Rate of Mortgages At Least 30 Days Past Due

State and Metro Level Delinquencies

All states posted annual decreases in their overall delinquency rates in September 2021 as the employment picture improved across the country compared to a year earlier. Figure 2 shows the states with the highest and lowest share of mortgages 30 days or more delinquent. In September 2021, that rate was highest in Louisiana at 8.1% and lowest in Idaho at 1.9%. Idaho has had one of the strongest job recoveries in the U.S. and Louisiana has had one of the weakest. As of September 2021, Idaho had recovered all the jobs lost in March and April 2020 while Louisiana had only recovered 38% of jobs lost.

Figure 3: Percentage of Mortgages At Least 30 Days Past Due For the Ten Largest Metropolitan Areas

Figure 3 shows the 30-plus-day past-due rate for September 2021 for 10 large metropolitan areas. New York had the highest rate at 5.7%, and San Francisco had the lowest rate at 2.1%. Miami’s rate decreased 5.4 percentage points from a year earlier. Outside of the largest 10, all but two metros recorded a decrease in the overall delinquency rate. Nevertheless, elevated overall delinquency rates remain in some metros, including Houma-Thibodaux, Louisiana (13.3%); Odessa, Texas (10.6%); Hammond, Louisiana (10%) and Laredo, Texas (9.9%).

The economic recovery has pushed down the percent of delinquent borrowers to the lowest level since the pandemic began. While the number of borrowers past due on their mortgage doubled between March and May 2020, that rate has since decreased and in September 2021 was the lowest since March 2020.

To learn more about the data behind this article and what CoreLogic has to offer, visit https://www.corelogic.com/.