Through January 2022 with Forecasts through January 2023
Introduction
The CoreLogic Home Price Insights report features an interactive view of our Home Price Index product with analysis through January 2022 and forecasts through January 2023.
CoreLogic HPI™ is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ (with a 30-year forecast horizon), project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—Single-Family Combined (both Attached and Detached) and Single-Family Combined excluding distressed sales.
The report is published monthly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes home price indices (including distressed sale); home price forecast and market condition indicators. The data incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends.
HPI National Change
January 2022 National Home Prices
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 19.1% in January 2022 compared with January 2021. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 1.4% in January 2022 compared with December 2021 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).
Forecast Prices Nationally
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase on a month-over-month basis by 0.2% from January 2022 to February 2022 and on a year-over-year basis by 3.8% from January 2022 to January 2023.
HPI & Case-Shiller Trends
This graph shows a comparison of the national year-over-year percent change for the CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index from 2000 to present month with forecasts one year into the future. We note that both the CoreLogic HPI Single Family Combined tier and the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index are posting positive, but moderating year-over-year percent changes, and forecasting gains for the next year.
Economic Impact on Home Prices
Consumers looking to purchase a home have remained optimistic moving into the new year, with more expecting to buy over the next six months as rapid home price appreciation is forecasted to slow. Despite market and economic challenges such as low inventory, continued buyer competition and declining affordability, potential buyers are ready to move while mortgage rates remain relatively low.
“In December and January, for-sale inventory continued to be the lowest we have seen in a generation. Buyers have continued to bid prices up for the limited supply on the market. However, the rise in mortgage rates since January further eroded buyer affordability and is expected to slow price gains in coming months.”
– Dr. Frank Nothaft
Chief Economist for CoreLogic
HPI National and State Maps – January 2022
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
Nationally, home prices increased 19.1% year over year in January. No states posted an annual decline in home prices. The states with the highest increases year-over-year were Arizona (28.3%), Florida (27.9%), and Utah (25.2%).
HPI Top 10 Metros Change
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
These large cities continue to experience price increases in January, with Phoenix leading the way at 30.2% year over year.
Markets to Watch: Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline
The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts that Lake Havasu-Kingman, Arizona is at the highest risk (+70% probability) of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months. Prescott, Arizona is also at high risk (50-70%), while Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Connecticut; Hartford, Connecticut; and Bremerton-Silverdale, Washington, are at a moderate risk (25-50%) of a decline.
To learn more about the data behind this article and what CoreLogic has to offer, visit https://www.corelogic.com/.
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