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Real Estate

Loan Performance Insights

Source: https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/loan-performance-insights/

Introduction

The CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights report features an interactive view of our mortgage performance analysis through February 2022.

Measuring early-stage delinquency rates is important for analyzing the health of the mortgage market. To more comprehensively monitor mortgage performance, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates that indicate the percent of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next.

The report is published monthly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes transition rates between states of delinquency and separate breakouts for 120+ day delinquency.

“While job and income gains have helped push delinquency rates lower, some families continue to face financial stress. One-half of the borrowers who are seriously delinquent are behind on their payments by six or more months. Even though this group has been declining, the number that have missed at least six monthly payments is still double what it was in the months immediately prior to the pandemic. ”

– Dr. Frank Nothaft
Chief Economist for CoreLogic

30 Days or More Delinquent – National

In February 2022, 3.2% of mortgages were delinquent by at least 30 days or more including those in foreclosure.

This represents a 2.5-percentage point decrease in the overall delinquency rate compared with February 2021. This remains the lowest recorded overall delinquency rate in the U.S. since at least January 1999.

Delinquency Rates Continue to Shrink in February

The U.S. overall delinquency rate fell to another historic low in February. This marked the 11th straight month of declines, with all states and metro areas recording annual drops in delinquencies. Home price growth continued to intensify as this year’s traditionally busy spring real estate season began, with prices rising by almost 21% since March 2021. However, national appreciation is expected to cool to around 6% by March 2023, which could cause equity gains to slow for homeowners in some areas of the country, providing less protection from mortgage defaults for those who fall behind on their payments.

Loan Performance – National

CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency to more comprehensively monitor mortgage performance.

The nation’s overall delinquency rate for February was 3.2%. The rate for early-stage delinquencies – defined as 30 to 59 days past due – was 1.3% in February 2022, down from 1.5% in February 2021. The share of mortgages 60 to 89 days past due was 0.3%, down from 0.5% in February 2021. The serious delinquency rate – defined as 90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure – was 1.6%, down from 3.7% in February 2021.

As of February 2022, the foreclosure inventory rate was 0.2%, down from 0.3% in February 2021.

Transition Rates – National

CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates that indicate the percent of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next.

The share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30-days past due was 0.8%, down from February 2021.

Overall Delinquency – State

Overall delinquency is defined as 30-days or more past due, including those in foreclosure.

In February 2022, all states logged year-over-year declines in their overall delinquency rates. The states with the largest declines were: Nevada (down 3.9 percentage points), Hawaii and Louisiana (both down 3.7 percentage points) and New Jersey (down 3.6 percentage points).

Serious Delinquency – Metropolitan Areas

Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due including loans in foreclosure.

There were no metropolitan areas where the Serious Delinquency Rate increased.

There were 384 metropolitan areas where the Serious Delinquency Rate decreased.

To learn more about the data behind this article and what CoreLogic has to offer, visit https://www.corelogic.com/.

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Consumer Edge Insight offers exclusive street-ready big-data products engineered for alpha generation by Data Science Teams & Portfolio Managers alike. CEI offers a number of alternative data products including CE Transact, our leading U.S. credit/debit card insight product (15M cards). CE Transact products provide aggregated revenue signal, deep fundamental cohort analysis and/or granular transaction-level data feeds with unparalleled metadata. Advantages: shortened latency (T+4), better panel representativeness (9M+ daily panel), and metadata integration such as demographics (at cardholder level). All data is cleaned with CEs Advanced Tagging System.