Through August 2022 with Forecasts through August 2023
Introduction
The CoreLogic Home Price Insights report features an interactive view of our Home Price Index product with analysis through August 2022 with forecasts through August 2023.
CoreLogic HPI™ is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ (with a 30-year forecast horizon), project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—Single-Family Combined (both Attached and Detached) and Single-Family Combined excluding distressed sales.
The report is published monthly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes home price indices (including distressed sales); home price forecast and market condition indicators. The data incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends.
HPI National Change
August 2022 National Home Prices
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 13.5% in August 2022 compared with August 2021. On a month-over-month basis, home prices declined by 0.7% in August 2022 compared with July 2022 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).
Forecast Prices Nationally
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase on a month-over-month basis by 0.0% from August 2022 to September 2022 and on a year-over-year basis by 3.2% from August 2022 to August 2023.
HPI & Case-Shiller Trends
This graph shows a comparison of the national year-over-year percent change for the CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index from 2000 to present month with forecasts one year into the future. We note that both the CoreLogic HPI Single Family Combined tier and the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index are posting positive, but moderating year-over-year percent changes, and forecasting gains for the next year.
August Annual Home Price Growth Lowest Since Spring 2021
Although U.S. home prices continued their 127-month run of consecutive annual gains in August, they slowed for the fourth straight month to 13.5%. That’s the lowest year-over-year appreciation recorded since April 2021 and partially reflects continued cooling buyer demand due to higher mortgage rates and housing trends motivated by the COVID-19 outbreak winding down. The 0.7% month-over-month price decrease also indicates reduced homebuyer enthusiasm, with nearly three-quarters of states posting declines from July.
“The increased cost of homeownership has dampened buyer demand and caused prices to decelerate at a faster pace than initially expected. Housing markets on the West Coast and in the Mountain West, as well as second-home markets, recorded particularly strong price growth in the summer of 2021 but were the first to see month-over-month price declines during the same period this year. While decelerating price growth and price declines benefit younger potential homebuyers, mortgage rates that are approaching 7% may cut many hopefuls out of the picture.”
– Selma Hepp
Interim Lead, Deputy Chief Economist for CoreLogic
HPI National and State Maps – August 2022
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
Nationally, home prices increased 13.5% year over year in August. No states posted an annual decline in home prices. The states with the highest increases year over year were Florida (26.4%), Tennessee (20%) and North Carolina (19.9%).
HPI Top 10 Metros Change
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
These large cities continued to experience price increases in August, with Miami on top at 27.1% year over year.
Markets to Watch: Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline
The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts that Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL is at a very high risk (70%-plus probability) of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months. Bremerton-Silverdale, WA; Bellingham, WA; Boise City, ID and Reno, NV are also at very high risk for price declines.
To learn more about the data behind this article and what CoreLogic has to offer, visit https://www.corelogic.com/.
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