In this Placer Bytes, we provide critical context for a difficult February and break down the latest beneficiary of the Chicken Sandwich. February was a tough month for offline retail with a combination of multiple instances of extreme inclement weather throughout the country, continued COVID effects and one fewer day limiting the overall monthly output. This led to weeks in February where several categories hit low points they hadn’t seen since the summer, and in some cases, early June. While this is hardly a positive note for the wider offline retail space, once again, an immediate recovery began following the dip. By late February, visits were again back on the rise.
We checked back in on some of Darden Restaurants’s top brands to see how the recovery is going thus far into the new year. When looking at year-over-year visits from early 2020, it’s clear that Darden was poised for a strong year, with four of its top restaurants showing year-over-year growth in both January and February 2020. The Yard House was leading the way with year over year visit increases of 14.1% and 22.7% respectively for those two months, but Olive Garden, Cheddar’s and LongHorn Steakhouse were seeing very impressive jumps.
In this Placer Bytes, we look at two of retail’s strongest in Five Below and Michaels and break down the potential for a Belk recovery. Five Below is among the most interesting brands to watch as it is seeing exceptional offline strength heading into a period where its value offering could be even more attractive. Following a dip in year-over-year visits driven by the pandemic, the brand quickly saw visits return to year-over-year growth by July 2020.
In this Placer Bytes, we dive into Ulta’s performance, Sephora’s expansion plans, and the continued rise of Citi Trends. It’s becoming increasingly clear that Ulta resides in a stratosphere reserved for retail’s top players. After delivering a very strong 2020, especially considering the context, the brand had one of the fastest starts to 2021.
In this Placer Bytes, we dive into the performance of Dick’s Sporting Goods and break down the newest addition to the Tractor Supply kingdom. Dick’s Sporting Goods is an especially impressive brand and the company’s offline recovery was – even amid COVID circumstances – certainly predictable. But the period from November 2020 through January 2021 may actually be one of the strongest testaments to the brand’s unique reach. Dick’s saw visits decline 30.5% year over year in November as holiday visits were hammered by a resurgence of COVID cases.
In this Placer Bytes, we dive into Dollar General’s continued strength and the recoveries of Gap and Old Navy. Dollar General has seen exceptional growth in the last year with every month since January 2020 showing year-over-year increases. And while the jumps themselves are good enough, it’s the continuity of these increases that makes them all the more impressive. Even as COVID cases surged in November, visits continued to remain up 8.9% year over year, and this continued with December and January up 5.3% and 7.5% respectively.
Prior to the pandemic, Costco has been among the most consistently strong performers in all of retail with year over year visit growth essentially a given. On the other hand, BJ’s Wholesale had been the clear third wheel in the battle for wholesale club supremacy. Yet, since the pandemic, visits to the former have been up and down, while BJ’s has been one of the most impressive players with near ongoing year-over-year growth. So what does it all mean and how did traffic unfold in late 2020 and January 2021?
In this Placer Bytes, we dive into a critical lesson from Burlington’s recovery, the rebound potential for Nordstrom, and the opportunity for Dollar Tree. When Burlington removed its eCommerce capabilities the wider retail community was up in arms. This wasn’t helped by the onset of a pandemic that shut down Burlington locations, leading some to assume that it would affect Burlington in the long-run.
In this Placer Bytes, we break down Target and dive into Kohl’s and Ross. It may be stating the obvious at this point, but Target seems poised for an exceptionally strong year. After seeing visits hover just under 2019 levels for most of the spring and summer, September and October drove visits that were up 2.6% and 5.2% year over year. Yet, like most other retailers, the resurgence of COVID cases impacted visits driving a year over year visit gap of 8.5% in November and 5.4% in December.
In this Placer Bytes, we dive into the surprisingly strong performance of Best Buy, Big Lots ongoing opportunity, and the trajectory of Sprouts and Kroger. A resurgence of COVID cases right before Black Friday should spell doom for a brand that is heavily oriented around that specific day. Yet, while Best Buy certainly felt the impact in offline visits, the company seems to have weathered the storm quite effectively.
In this Placer Bytes, we dive into the impressive results from the TJX portfolio, and the Q4 performances from Dillards and Macy’s. The wider TJX portfolio had an exceptional end to 2020 and a very strong start to 2021. Visits to T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods locations quickly overcame a visit drop between October and November as COVID cases surged and then sustained the positive momentum into 2021.
Admittedly, we have high hopes for the gym sector and for Planet Fitness specifically. But there are reasons for the excitement and January data shows both why we are particularly optimistic, and why that optimism may be difficult to see upon initial glance. Looking at Planet Fitness monthly visits year over year paints a very clear, if not expected, picture. The brand kicked off 2020 with huge amounts of visit growth before quickly and obviously succumbing to the damaging effects of COVID.
In this Placer Bytes, we dive into the performances of Home Depot and Lowe’s to see if two of the top retail performers during the COVID era continued their dominance into Q4 and early 2021. Since the onset of the pandemic, Home Depot and Lowe’s have been among the best retail performers. And late 2020 and January 2021 showed that this trend is still going strong.
In contrast to what many anticipated in the earlier days of COVID, the off-price retail space has witnessed a significant recovery pattern throughout the pandemic, both in foot traffic and reported revenue. But as the sector quickly paves its way back to normalcy, leading off-price brands face new challenges and pandemic-driven shifts that can significantly impact their growth rate. In our latest Off-Price Retail Dive whitepaper, we dove into some of the significant shifts shaping the industry during the pandemic and their impact on its impressive rise. Below is a taste of what we found.
Walmart felt the same offline effects as other retailers in late 2020 as the holiday season was hit hard by a resurgence of COVID cases. The result was a November year-over-year visit gap of 13.8%, the largest since April. But December saw the visit gap shrink to 10.6%, and January saw that drop to just 7.2% year over year – the best since October’s mark of 6.7%. And while this is a success in and of itself, when combined with the mission-driven shopping trend that has boosted basket size, the impact could be even more significant.
In this Placer Bytes, we dive into pharmacy giant CVS and one of the biggest surprises in retail, Floor & Decor. With CVS beginning in-store vaccinations, there is reason to be excited about the brand’s prospects in the coming months. But this is especially true considering the strength it’s already shown. Visits to CVS locations were down just 0.1% in October before a surge in COVID cases drove the visit gap to 6.8% in November. Yet, even with that challenge, visits rebounded in December and were down just 3.6% year over year that month.
2020 was certainly not the greatest year ever for offline retail, but its effects may already be driving strength for some brands in 2021. While this year will hopefully be marked by a strong recovery amid COVID’s declining effects, some brands are already showing clear strength. Which retailers have had some of the fastest starts to 2021? We looked at the data to find out.
In this Placer Bytes, we dive into two retail segments that seem impervious to the pandemic’s effects – pets and shoes. While it may seem obvious that our pets hold center stage amid the pandemic, the results have still been impressive. The sector has ridden a similar wave to the rest of retail, with recoveries offset by a step back in November, yet this specific space is riding much higher levels of strength than most retail players.
In this Placer Bytes, we dive into the office supplies sector and the data from Macy’s outdoor concept – Market by Macy’s. While not quite as catchy as the Chicken Wars the battle for supremacy in office supplies warrants notice, especially with Office Depot recently rejecting a Staples acquisition offer. Looking at both brands, there is a clear narrative guiding the conversation around the sector – how can it survive?
In this Placer Bytes, we take a look at overall retail performance in 2020 and 2021 and dive into Southeastern’s Winn Dixie – even without their IPO. The wider retail sector had a memorable 2020 and while there were some categories that outperformed, it was certainly a challenging year for offline retail. While the wider retail segment saw visits up 3% and 4% respectively in January and February, the havoc of the pandemic made its presence felt in the spring.
