This past year has been a particularly interesting year for the restaurant space. Migration trends, new store formats, and fleet expansion during a turbulent economic period have all made for intriguing storylines. We dove into the visit data for five fast food chains and took a look at the foot traffic trends that earn them a spot on our list of Hot Restaurant Brands for 2023. Founded in Baton Rouge, LA. in 1996, Raising Cane’s is known for chicken finger meals and “Cane’s Sauce” – made daily from a top-secret recipe. The chain boasts more than 600 locations, over 300 of which opened in the last few years.
Despite high inflation and rising menu prices, full-service restaurants (FSRs) have been staging a comeback. Consumer transaction data reveals that for major FSR competitors—Bloomin’ Brands (NASDAQ: BLMN), The Cheesecake Factory Inc (NASDAQ: CAKE), Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc (NASDAQ: CBRL), Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI), Denny’s Corp (NASDAQ: DENN), and Dine Brands Global (NYSE: DIN)—sales in the third quarter of 2022 were higher than they were in the same quarter of 2019.
Our latest white paper looks at six brands that are leading their category and continuing to attract visitors amidst ongoing inflation and tightening consumer budgets. Below is a taste of our findings. Inflation has taken center stage over the past few months. With the current price hikes affecting daily spending, shoppers are increasingly considering “trading down” – substituting their regular brands with lower-priced alternatives. But although consumers are adopting a more value-conscious behavior, foot traffic data indicates that the true state of retail is not as bleak as may be expected.
After more than two years of remote work, many companies are unlocking their office doors and asking employees to come back. In fact, about 50% of companies want workers back in the office 5 days a week. Much to their dismay, many of their employees don’t want to return—at least not every day. According to a Gallup study, more than 90% of the 70mm remote-capable employees say they don’t want to go back to the office full-time. Either way, with the return-to-office policies going into effect, people are putting on their fancy clothes, restarting their daily commutes and dropping their kids off at daycare.
Pet supply companies saw their sales rise early in the pandemic, as many U.S. consumers adopted pets during the pandemic lockdowns. In the case of Chewy (NYSE: CHWY), a digitally-native pet supply company, sales remain elevated more than two years into the pandemic, Bloomberg Second Measure’s consumer transaction data shows. A closer look reveals, however, that the company’s year-over-year growth in sales slowed down between January and August of 2022, compared with the corresponding periods in 2020 and 2021, while customer counts during most months of 2022 remained relatively consistent year-over-year, but higher than in 2020 and 2019.
In the past two years, many creditworthy borrowers have taken advantage of ultralow interest rates to refinance their mortgages. As of July 2022, 80% of outstanding home mortgage loans had interest rates below or equal to 4%. However, rising interest rates have significantly reduced refinancing opportunities. With interest rates hovering around 6% and higher in September, refinancing activity has plummeted. Instead, home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) and home equity loans are gaining popularity as homeowners seek to tap their accumulated equity.
Target Deal Days have come a long way since the company first launched the event in 2018. Initially scheduled to overlap with Amazon’s Prime Day, the Deal Days slowly but surely took on a life of their own. In October 2021, Target kicked off the extended holiday shopping season with its first independent Deal Days event and the second Deal Days of the year, in a move that is now being used by Amazon. And this year, Target’s October Deal Days took place October 6th to 8th 2022 – almost a week before Amazon’s first-ever second Prime Day of the year scheduled for October 11-12.
Today’s cost of living increase for Social Security is the highest in 40 years. With recent inflation hitting those on a fixed income particularly hard, such a large increase is likely to provide much-needed relief to senior citizens. In today’s Insight Flash, we dig into spending patterns for those aged 65+ using our access to demographic data, seeing how spend has trended recently overall for this group and which subindustries and companies are most likely to benefit from extra dollars in these shoppers’ pockets.
The average sums that buyers are parting with for a down payment are at an all-time high for all homes purchased in the United States. After falling during the housing crisis of the Great Recession (2008-2009), the average down payment amount has steadily increased. However, since the onset of the pandemic in early 2020, the average down payment sum surged, reaching a record high in May 2022. Home prices play a significant part in the size of down payments, and with increases in home prices over the last few years, average down payments have followed suit.
To reduce Europe’s dependency on Russian oil and gas, the European Commission recently introduced a new joint action plan for more secure and renewable energy. The announcement included policies mandating the installation of solar panels on new buildings and plans to double the deployment rate of heat pumps. But does the European labor market have enough talent to install all these solar panels and heat pumps? Job postings at renewable energy companies more than tripled shortly after the announcement. During the spike, more than 20,000 green jobs were added, before demand normalized again.
The brick-and-mortar apparel category has faced a unique set of challenges. Two years of a pandemic drastically changed the nature of in-person shopping and gave way to the most significant consumer price index jump in 40 years. Still, the segment had plenty of bright spots – including the five apparel brands featured here. As previously explored, the shoe category has performed impressively over the past few years, and this continues to be true, especially for one of the fastest-growing chains identified.
Ookla® recently commented on the outcome of the 5G spectrum auction and how Indian consumers are ready to upgrade to 5G networks. We now have data from Speedtest Intelligence® to show early 5G performance across select cities as well as an indication of the growth of the number of 5G-capable devices.
Macro pressures in the UK are likely to put the squeeze on Grocery profits for the end of the year. With a recent warning by Tesco highlighting the impact of tighter consumer wallets, in today’s Insight Flash we do a pulse check on UK Grocers. Subscribers can track this data as the last three months of the year play out, seeing the extent to which conditions deteriorate or whether they improve and which grocers are most impacted.
With a post-pandemic prime shopping period behind us, we wanted to investigate consumer spending habits, considering the context of reemergence and macroeconomic factors. With the knowledge that people pulled back on shopping through mid-August, we looked at transaction metrics for major back-to-school retailers leading up to the first day of school. Back-to-school signifies not only children returning to school but also a return to consumers’ typical routines and needs. Warehouse Clubs and Big Box stores saw the highest bump from this change – about 16% in late August.
The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, improved 5.7% (2000=100) in September to 183.2 from the revised August reading of 173.4. The DMI is a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. In September, the commercial component of the Momentum Index rose 2.9%, while the institutional component also increased, seeing a double-digit gain of 11.7%.
Wawa, a leader in the gas and convenience store space, recently announced plans to nearly double its store count by 2030. The chain is also testing a new drive-thru channel to sell its fresh food offerings. We dove into the foot traffic data to take a closer look at Wawa’s success and see what the company’s standalone drive-thru’s performance reveals about Wawa’s QSR potential.
Bed Bath & Beyond has survived the test of time as one of the last remaining big box brick-and-mortar category killers. But recent performance has lagged, and reports of debt restructuring call into question how much longer the business model can survive. In today’s Insight Flash, we review the Bed Bath basics to showcase how equity investors might have been able to get ahead of the company’s large drops in share price, and how potential bondholders can better understand the risk profile compared to others in the space, by banner, and by channel.
With many employers still struggling to bring workers back to the office, we took a look at September 2022 office foot traffic data to find out where the workplace recovery stands heading into Q4 2022. Over the past couple of months, New York City office workers have consistently outpaced both the nationwide and other major cities in both year-over-three-years (Yo3Y) and year-over-year (YoY) monthly office foot traffic numbers.
Fixed broadband internet reached 86% of households at the end of 2021 in the U.K., and most customers have access to speeds of at least 30 Mbps. While seven large internet service providers (ISPs) dominate the United Kingdom fixed broadband market, the competitive landscape is vibrant, hosting dozens of alternative providers (AltNets). The U.K. fibre market also attracts new funding, which allows alternative providers to expand their fibre footprint. In fact, Ookla Speedtest Intelligence® data reveals smaller providers are sometimes the fastest across a few cities and counties.
In our recent collaboration with RW3 Culture Wizard, we take a look at remote work and its implications. An analysis of employee sentiment data finds that positive reviews mentioning remote work still greatly outnumber negative reviews. Not surprisingly, the number of positive reviews with remote mentions increased dramatically at the beginning of 2020.
