CoStar recently released its monthly Commercial Repeat Sale Indices (CCRSI), providing the market's first look at commercial real estate pricing trends through May 2020. Based on 538 repeat sale pairs in May 2020 and more than 227,324 repeat sales since 1996, the CCRSI offers the broadest measure of commercial real estate repeat sales activity.
Global exports of liquefied natural gas in June totaled approximately 28.2 million tons on board 472 vessels, much lower than June 2019’s pace of 29.3 million tons. Approximately 27.6 million tons arrived on 447 vessels at import terminals in June, compared to 29.5 million tons in June 2019. The number of floating LNG cargoes remained volatile last month, with the highest number of vessels at 33 occurring on June 19.
New York is reopening and the success here could provide critical insights into the nature of the wider retail recovery. New York City was among the hardest-hit cities and the state was one of the hardest-hit states, and if a rebound can successfully happen here, there is tremendous room for optimism throughout the country. So has the recovery shown thus far.
40%. 50%. 60%. Industry commentators are simply guessing when it comes to the fraction of airline routes and networks that we will see back by the end of the year. What we do know is that they will inevitably be reduced. They will be smaller because there will be fewer passenger flying for some time, and airlines will scale back networks in response to lower demand.
National home prices increased 4.8% year over year in May 2020, according to the latest CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI®) Report. The May 2020 HPI gain was up from the May 2019 gain of 3.6%. Strong demand, especially by younger home buyers, and low supply helped push home prices higher in May. The economic downturn that started in March 2020 is predicted to cause a 6.6% drop in the HPI by May 2021, which would be the first decrease in annual home prices in over 9 years.
The number of Germans travelling overseas has climbed to 75% of pre-lockdown levels over the last two weeks, according to the latest data from Huq’s new ‘European Travel Monitor’. The Monitor shows that German residents have been among the fastest in Europe resume international travel. The number of residents leaving Germany relative to pre-lockdown levels is followed by a rise in residents from France travelling abroad (62% of pre-lockdown levels) followed by Netherlands residents (60%) and the UK (42%).
Footfall across consumer settings in Italy has continued its dramatic rise over the last week, making it the first country to see activity levels climb to those inline with – or in excess of – pre-lockdown levels. Every country covered by Huq’s ‘All Consumer’ Indicator has an increase in the last two weeks, however the UK remains bottom of the league in terms of footfall across consumer outlets.
Small businesses have cut and reallocated their advertising budgets—often funneling dollars from local channels to Google and Facebook. “Ad spend piping into local channels will be significantly reduced for the long haul,” said Jed Williams, chief strategy officer at Local Media Association. Dollars that traditionally go to billboards, local TV and radio are now going to major digital platforms, as the return on investment is much easier to measure and justify.
At the start of 2020, we made our predictions for the year’s winners and our boldest was Bed Bath & Beyond. So, this might be confirmation bias, but when we saw how quickly its visits have been returning to normal, even with store closures being announced and fewer stores than a year prior due to the pandemic, the excitement in the air was palpable. Weekly visits for the brand were down just 22.0% year over year the week of June 15th, compared to being down 71.9% just a few weeks prior.
When the seriousness of the health threat from coronavirus set in, and shelter-in-place orders were put in place across the U.S. in March, the effect on job postings was dramatic. Job postings on Indeed dropped at a rate previously unseen, and by May 1, they were 39% below the trend from the previous year.
For the week ending 28 June, occupancy of open hotels in European countries ranged from 10%-40%. Among those countries, Israel posted the highest occupancy level (41%), followed closely by France (34%) and Spain (32%). Regional markets in Europe are leading the recovery while main cities have lagged. For example, Finland Provincial posted the country’s highest occupancy level (66%), while Helsinki occupancy was 23% for the week ending 28 June.
Australia has had a sluggish start to 2020 so far after a buoyant 2019 propelled by a record $14 billion of cross-border investment. The sharp downshift has drawn comparisons to the misery of 2008 which followed a bumper 2007, but the parallels in headline deal activity are just about where the similarities end. Back in 2007, Australia’s real estate investment landscape was very different.
Fewer cars bought. Fewer miles driven. Less travel. Reduced or eliminated paychecks and massive spikes in unemployment. The problems are legion for the US auto sector. Even with some initial estimates of the difficulties proving to be overstated, credit challenges could remain with the US auto sector for some time. The UK auto sector, where production has been reduced drastically and jobs are being cut, finds itself in a similar situation.
At one point in June, it appeared that a new all-time high for CMBS delinquencies would be reached. However, when the final numbers were posted, the 2012 high remains the peak for the time being. Trepp's CMBS Delinquency Rate in June is 10.32%, a jump of 317 basis points over the May number. About 5% of that number represents loans in the 30 days delinquent bucket while another 3.2% are now 60 days delinquent.
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented challenges for global hospitality, with travel restrictions and lockdown measures forcing hotel closures and performance declines that exceed the levels witnessed during the global financial crisis and other challenging times for the industry. An area of the industry where the impact continues to evolve is business on the books, or reservations booked for future dates.
A common narrative during the COVID recovery period has been that indoor malls are facing a near existential crisis. To analyze the validity of this argument, we dove into ten of the top indoor malls and ten of the top outdoor centers to compare their relative performance in order to break down the pace of recovery and the potential for the coming months.
As states began to reopen and elective procedures began happening again, medical and big pharma brands drastically increased their advertising spend. In early March spend was up roughly 15% YoY. With the initial shock of COVID, the YoY spend dropped, but by the beginning of April, it was up 71% YoY. Twenty-three different companies are currently working on a coronavirus treatment and/or vaccine, but these companies are not the largest spenders in advertising.
As we reach the midpoint of 2020, the picture of commercial real estate transactions completed globally continues to worsen, Real Capital Analytics data indicates. Activity in the Americas is falling back more severely than seen earlier in the year. Cumulative volume in the Americas at day 170 is now down 30% from a year ago.
The Covid19 crisis has exposed the risks in single, long and complex supply chains that are only as strong as their weakest link. Companies are moving quickly to multiple, short, simple and robust supply structures wherever possible. Some companies view their supply chain details as trade secrets, but a number of financial data platforms – such as Bloomberg and Factset – provide detailed information on suppliers and customers for many of the largest firms in the world.
From a high level, downtown areas have been slow to recover. Visitation remains very low in CBGs with large volumes of office space, while the use of public areas and some parks by Residents and Locals has actually exceeded 2019 visitation levels, even though mobility overall is still down about 50% as of this writing, largely due to out-of-town Workers staying home and Tourists staying away.
