The year 2020 was a colossal year for many nations getting to grips with the virus that has closed international travel off for many, whilst airports sit empty and planes grounded on lonely tarmacs. However, throw in Brexit, the AstraZeneca vaccine, lockdowns, and travel restrictions, and the United Kingdom has been on a never-ending see-saw of ups and downs.
It was only ever likely to be for a week, but China has snatched back the title of the world’s largest aviation market from the United States with a stellar 32% increase in capacity week on week and a more modest 4% growth in the last two weeks. Total weekly capacity is now back at 52.6 million although that only takes us to just above half the capacity levels reported before Covid-19.
Consumer Edge’s recently launched UK dataset has already proven to be very predictive for several company earnings reports. One such company is easyJet, where a strong correlation provides confidence in Consumer Edge airline data overall. In today’s Insight Flash, we take a deep dive into UK travel trends, digging into how low-cost players like easyJet are holding up.
Wow, where did that come from! A near 27% reduction in capacity and the loss of over 3.2 million domestic seats in one week has handed the United States the title as the world’s largest aviation market something no one probably expected. It may be a short-lived gift from China as part of their New Year festivities but nevertheless a dramatic turnaround in just seven days.
The impact of the pandemic on the travel industry, and aviation in particular, is laid bare in mobility data showing how outbound trips from the UK reduced by 75% throughout most of last year. High frequency data from Huq Industries shows how total trips abroad fell significantly during the first lockdown and have never recovered – currently languishing at 25 percent of 2019 levels.
With Australia Day recently celebrated on January 26, the travel analytics experts at ForwardKeys decided to zoom into the latest air ticket data to see what is on the horizon for the sunny Land Down Under and the outlook reveals unique city opportunities. When examining the air tickets issued since the commencement of the Coronavirus in April 2020, domestic travel across Australia’s four main cities, revealed new destination gems in the mineral-rich parts of Australia: Queensland and Western Australia.
According to the latest flight data by the experts at ForwardKeys, the domestic travel outlook for the Chinese New Year has been hurt by the rise in new cases in China. To prevent the spread of the virus, the vast majority of provinces have been strongly advised by the authorities to not travel outside their residential provinces for the holiday. For those who intend to travel back to their hometowns, it will be required to submit a negative COVID-19 test 7 days before the departure date.
Often referred to as the world’s largest mass migration, Chunyun, or the Spring Festival, can see as many as 3 billion trips being made in a more normal year. Coinciding with student breaks, and benefitting from a week of public holidays, vast numbers of students are joined by migrant workers and others returning home to spend time with their family. In more recent years, the Spring Festival is also a time when many have chosen to go on vacation, or return from overseas, causing a spike in both domestic and international air travel.
Another dire week for global aviation with more lockdowns, sudden suspensions of services and the threat of having to stay in a quarantine hotel at Heathrow looming for anyone brave enough to want to enter the United Kingdom. Can things get any worse; probably but let’s hope not and try to stay positive.
Last year was a dismal year for travel. But as vaccines and other safety measures roll out, change is already happening. Whether it’s cycling trips to tour sites important to the Civil Rights movement or an overdue visit to see grandparents, travel will be a meaningful part of 2021. As the industry recovers, advertisers can provide answers to the question at the top of many consumers’ minds: where to next?
Few industries have been impacted more severely by the COVID-19 pandemic than Travel & Leisure. According to Credit Benchmark, which captures the credit risk views of over 40 of the world’s leading financial institutions, 44% of companies in the global Travel & Leisure sector fell from investment grade to high yield between March and November of 2020. That means the consensus credit risk scores for these so-called ‘fallen angels’ fell below the bbb- threshold at some point during the pandemic.
The Tokyo Olympics didn’t happen in 2020 and now the question is will they happen in 2021. Obviously, the primary concern for the organisers is the risk of spreading covid-19, but to what extent does the event also rely on the world of global aviation being at least partially recovered.
According to the latest Air Ticket data by ForwardKeys when examining issued tickets as of 1 January 2021, bookings in Russia’s domestic market in the next 6 months are the most advanced among the top 10 domestic markets worldwide. Issued tickets have already reached 77% of 2020’s level for the next 6 month’s travel.
Fifty-two weeks ago, we wrote a short blog highlighting some of the regional capacity changes in Asia as a result of a small, localised outbreak of a new virus. At the time we thought that there could be some impact on global aviation, perhaps like a SARS or Ebola time impact. We were so wrong! A year later and we are reporting on what has become the single most destructive event in aviation history; it has to end soon, surely?
With COVID cases resurfacing just in time for the holidays, we took a look at several hotels and airports to see how the pandemic affected the country’s holiday travel plans. While showing signs of a recovery, overall airport traffic was still down significantly during the holiday season – one of the normal peaks for travel.
Even amidst an unprecedented pandemic, Americans still traveled for the holidays, just at lower numbers than usual. That’s according to Envestnet | Yodlee’s Income and Spending trends, as well as recent news reports. Airports saw depressed numbers for holiday season. According to the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), there were over 600,000 people screened at airport security checkpoints on Christmas Day, or roughly 23% of the number vs a year ago.
ForwardKeys has been paving the course for destination marketing and tourism since its inception in 2010 by creating bespoke data solutions using the latest and most comprehensive airline data in the market such as ForwardKeys Nexus.
With the New Year fast approaching and the announcement of a new travel bubble between Japan and Hawaii, the team at ForwardKeys thought to post a new blog regarding the highs and lows of the recent travel bubbles. Here’s what we’ve learned.
The busy bees at ForwardKeys have been enriching travel data, adding them into dashboards and sharing the multitude of insights at virtual events, partner forums and to the media. Now that 2020 is fast approaching its end, we wonder whether we must continue to hold our breaths into the New Year or can we finally release a satisfactory sigh of relief?
Research undertaken by ForwardKeys, the travel analytics firm, reveals that despite the COVID-19 pandemic and the consequent collapse in aviation, there has been a last-minute surge in flight bookings for the Christmas period. In a normal year, tickets issued for travel in the week before Christmas tend to grow progressively throughout the year.
