Today’s data from Huq’s new European Travel Monitor indicates that the reasons for British overseas travel during recent months have been closely inline with those permitted – essential work, family and ‘returning home to a main residence’. This new monitor – which measures the proportion of European country-residents present in popular destinations across southern Europe – also reveals that Sweden has been the only country to demonstrate some semblance of normality over the period since March, with residents 6x more likely to travel than their British counterparts.
For many airlines the Europe to United States market is the most profitable part of their network. July is traditionally one of the most lucrative months, the business market remains strong, leisure traffic picks up and yields are at their strongest for many carriers; that tradition is not happening this year for sure. With the European Union and United Kingdom classifying the United States as a Red-Light destination then only the chosen few or those seeking quarantine will be able to travel.
The housing-market boom that pushed home prices upward for eight-years throughout the United States sputtered abruptly in May 2020 in large swaths of the country – the first sign that the worldwide Coronavirus pandemic is damaging property values across the nation. New sales figures from ATTOM Data Solutions show that median home prices stayed the same or dropped from April to May of 2020 in 17 states, as well as in half the metropolitan areas with enough transactions to analyze.
he first half of 2020 was, in many ways, unprecedented. The COVID-19 pandemic had a profound impact on the economy as a whole, and on multifamily specifically. We’ve covered various aspects of that impact elsewhere on the ALN blog. In this space today, let’s consider how Texas multifamily performed in the first half of the year from a few different perspectives.
Measuring foot traffic at consumer discretionary businesses helps us understand the extent to which people are back to shopping for non-essentials - an indicator for increasing flexibility of movement and confidence in the outlook. During April and May there was a massive year-over-year drop in visits to non-essential locations. This make sense given most stores were closed. As you would expect, this trend was most pronounced in states such as Nevada and New York.
Memorial Day weekend historically marks the unofficial start of summer travel. But this year, it also served as a bellwether of whether consumers would be ready to travel again. Our purchase insights show that, in the near term, travel post-COVID may be considerably changed.
Last week was the week foot traffic tapped the brakes as consumers grew cautious in the face of rising case counts in several states. After nearly a month of strong growth across most categories – including some surprising gainers like malls and casual dining – foot traffic stalled for 7 of the top 9 categories. Big box retail, grocery, pharmacy, mall, fast casual dining, and fast food all paused their reemergence and shrank a few points.
As we make our way deeper into the retail recovery, the question of the lingering impact on certain behavioral changes comes to the forefront. What’s changed? How much did it change? And which of these changes have true staying power? And nowhere is this question more significant than for top QSR brands that had a clear morning orientation.
With restrictions lifted early in the state, and given its popularity as a vacation destination, hotel traffic has seen a steady rise since mid-April. As of the third week of June, traffic in Florida hotels was 43% below the start of the year. Though with case numbers rising again over the past several days we may see a reversal of the trend as we head into July.
In Part 2 of this blog, we’ll take a look at consumer spending on commuting since the shelter-in-place orders were initiated across the country and resulted in many Americans working from home. Public transit and options such as taxis and ride sharing continue to look sluggish in terms of spending, although car rentals have picked up at a faster pace.
Each monthly credit update brings more bad news for the energy sector. Even with positive signs, such as increased air travel and the gradual reopening of the economy, demand remains suppressed. Default risk continues to surge and shows no sign of immediate improvement.
Globally, hotels have been the asset class most impacted by the Covid-19 crisis. Sales of hotels were down by one-half in the first five months of 2020 in comparison with 2019 and just 113 hotels have sold worldwide since the start of April. By way of comparison, more than 850 sold in the second quarter of 2019.
The first official week of Summer has resulted in the largest week on week growth in capacity during the Covid-19 event with some 8.2 million seats added back around the globe and a week on week percentage increase of 21%. We may also be heading for a week with a very high rate of cancellations as airlines wait for demand to respond but let’s worry about that next week!
Yes, it was considered essential retail during the pandemic, but Target was still hit very hard. The year kicked off incredibly well, but visits saw a significant downturn, especially compared to superstore competitor Walmart. While Walmart’s traffic never dipped below 20.0%, Target saw visits drop 32.2% compared to the same month in 2019.
Like the rest of the economy, the automotive market was hit hard by COVID. Over the last couple months, sales have risen and advertising spend has followed. The increase in advertising spend among automakers and related services is occurring at different paces. Plus, creative has gone through a major revamp.
The travel and hospitality category generally continues along a weak recovery trend much as it has since mid-April when visitation bottomed-out between -60% and -80% for most brands. That’s up to a national average of within \~50% of pre-COVID levels, as of this writing. The motel sector is recovering faster on the whole than the hotel sector, though the states leading the recovery charge could soon face a second wave of restrictions.
The latest data from Huq’s ‘Daily Distances’ indicator shows that New York residents continue to trail 11 major US and European centres in terms of population mobility as caution prevails. Latest figures demonstrate that the average daily distances covered by New Yorkers has yet to regain 40% of mean pre-lockdown levels, in stark contrast to other US cities (Chicago 63%, Boston 52%, Houston 65% and Atlanta 47%) and European capitals (Madrid 47%, Paris 83%, Berlin 80% and London 65%).
Today, we’re going to continue to review what reemergence has looked like so far. It’s even more complex than we had previously stated: traffic recovery is varying by region not just by the amount of recovery but by the speed and direction of change.
What has returned to ‘normal’ in the U.S labor market is the fact that the trailing 30-day average of daily new and removed job listings on company websites throughout the country are now back in tandem with one another. And while the daily number of active job openings isn’t rising, new and removed jobs have risen steadily since May which provides some evidence that some portion of businesses have started or intend to start hiring again.
Since Europe was locked down earlier than North America, it has also started opening up sooner. As a comparison, we looked first at foot traffic in European airports to see whether there are any early signs of a pick-up in visitors coming into the peak holiday period. Overall traffic remains fairly depressed, but there are some signs of growth, particularly in Greece, which depends heavily on tourism income.
