The 10yr US Treasury has averaged less than 1% every month since March 2020. Commercial mortgage rates have barely budged despite this sustained low level for the interest rate environment. In any normal period, low interest rates would be a positive sign for commercial real estate investment. Interest rates remaining at such a low level over a sustained period is a sign of weakness in the economy.
August digital games revenue totaled $10.8B, up 16% year-over-year. Digital console earnings grew the most and were up 88% compared to the same month in 2019. Revenue also rose by 15% on PC and 3% on mobile. Digital games have earned $82.8B through the first eight months of 2020, a growth of 13% from the same time span last year. Gaming revenue took off in March as COVID-19 lockdowns spread worldwide.
Without a federal mandate, states and local governments placed their own rules on which types of construction were considered essential. Some states, like Vermont, decided that the only construction allowed during shelter-in-place was “construction necessary to support the COVID-19 response and maintain critical infrastructure.” However, in most states, nearly all construction was deemed essential.
Footfall to Pubs reached a post-Covid high on Saturday, with Huq’s Daily Index climbing to almost 100% of Year-on-Year levels – a drastic change in the downward trend which had emerged over the last month as the sector grappled with an Eat Out to Help Out hangover. With unseasonably warm weather over the weekend and threats of an imminent second lockdown murmuring, punters appear to have been tempted into a final evening in the pub.
In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, purchase-loan appraisals took a blow from disruptions inflicted upon homebuying and selling activities under nationwide lock-down and social distancing restrictions. After all, there is less demand for appraisal services by lenders when home sales are down. Now, with much of the country re-opening, the good news is that home sales have rebounded quickly.
Movie theaters and other entertainment venues have been hard-hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. As restaurants and retail have been allowed to open in limited capacity, entertainment venues have been among the last on the list to get back to business for many states. Even as reopenings have begun in many states, most studios have chosen to hold back blockbusters until they can be shown at full capacity.
American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 5.6% in August after declining 1.4% in July. In August, the index equaled 107.5 (2015=100) compared with 113.9 in July.
As the country mourns the passing of Ruth Bader Ginsberg, we remark on the influence she had on gender equality for all Americans. This influence was perhaps most pronounced in her own profession.
Since March and the COVID-19 pandemic, as people purchased everything they could out of fear that shelves and supply lines would soon be overwhelmed, there was another swell in COVID-19 driven purchasing: pets. Pet adoptions have been on the rise since the start of the pandemic, as people find themselves lonely and bored in their homes.
What does a COVID recovery look like for businesses? 6 months after the initial lock-down we know that, in the US, the journey has been remarkably different for different types of businesses. Our foot traffic indices capture trends that show just how varied the path has been. We looked at the percentage change in foot traffic for 5 different sectors during each month of this year.
In this Placer Bytes we dive into the data surrounding JCPenney and Darden Restaurants. Despite filing for bankruptcy back in May and being recently bought out by mall operators Simon Property Group and Brookfield Property Group, JCPenney’s foot traffic has been increasing since the retail economy was allowed to reopen across the country.
Credit Benchmark have released the September Credit Consensus Indicators (CCIs). The CCI is an index of forward-looking credit opinions for US, UK and EU Industrials based on the consensus views of over 30,000 credit analysts at 40 of the world’s leading financial institutions. The CCI tracks the total number of upgrades and downgrades made each month by credit analysts to chart the long-term trend in analyst sentiment for industrials.
Thanks in part to the launch of Penn Sports Interactive’s newest sportsbook app, Barstool Sportsbook, sportsbook apps hit their all-time high for downloads in a single day on September 20th. Downloads jumped 209% from 2017 to 2018 and then 224% from 2018 to 2019. The US federal ban on sports betting was lifted In May 2018, spurring this growth.
With the cold and flu season on the horizon – and COVID-19 cases holding steady at a very high baseline – this trend is concerning. In Arkansas, where Kinsa’s Rt metric has been moderately elevated for several weeks, confirmed COVID cases are now beginning to rise. In neighboring Missouri, Greene County has also seen high illness transmission in recent weeks.
In this Placer Bytes, we’ll dive into Costco’s return, Nike’s offline future, and what the loss of Pier 1 will mean for the home goods sector. Costco is amazing at what they do. While competitors like Sam’s Club and BJ’s Wholesale surged, there were questions about Costco visits remaining down year over year. Yet, the moment the economy truly began to open up, Costco’s visits returned.
In the week that Qantas introduced flights to nowhere that sold out in ten minutes it is perhaps no surprise that scheduled airline capacity also went nowhere significant in the last week. Although we have slipped below the 57 million weekly seat market to 56.9 million, week on week capacity is only down by some 98,000 seats which seems like a small victory given that this is the seventh consecutive week of declines. Maybe there is a future in flying to nowhere.
The makeup industry is typically resilient during recessions—however, COVID-19 is forcing this vertical to shift in new directions. With social distancing, working from home (WFH) and mask requirements, people are prioritizing different cosmetics than they would’ve in past recessions. Direct-to-consumer (DTC) brands are doing particularly well, as online shopping for makeup is becoming more common.
Visits to pubs across the UK took a tumble in September as the stimulus of Eat-Out-to-Help-Out appears to be running dry and large parts of the country face renewed restrictions. Huq’s Index for Restaurants & Pubs had identified signs of a positive recovery throughout August. However, the rate of growth has reversed in the last few weeks with visits halving in pubs. Restaurants and even QSR paint a similar picture.
The amount of equity in mortgaged real estate increased by $620 billion in the second quarter of 2020 from the second quarter of 2019, an annual increase of 6.6%, according to the latest CoreLogic Equity Report. Borrower equity hit a new high in the second quarter of 2020, and borrowers have gained over $6 trillion in equity in the last 10 years.
Except for a few lonesome doves, general retailers in the US continue to struggle. Sales have returned to pre-pandemic levels, but the composition is different and recent sales recoveries were lower than anticipated. Consumer spending increases have been moderate. Something similar can be said for UK retail and for UK consumer spending. COVID-19 remains an issue for each country.
